长短时记忆神经网络在中期地震预报中的探索--以川滇地区为例     

李林芳  石耀霖  程术 《地球物理学报》2022,65(1):12-25

利用机器学习方法对地震活动大数据进行挖掘,识别出一些过去认识不到的异常,提高地震预测的准确性,是一个非常具有挑战性的科学问题.本文基于川滇部分地区(24°N—32°N,98°E—106°E)地震目录,采用滑动的时空窗口,选取16个反映地震时空强度分布特征的地震预测因子,建立了长短时记忆(LSTM)神经网络,对研究区域9个子区块未来一年的最大地震震级进行预测.通过设置训练集∶测试集=8∶2和训练集∶测试集=7∶3两个不同的训练测试模型,对过往发生的地震进行了回溯性预报.结果表明:训练集∶测试集=7∶3模型能够利用1970年1月至2004年9月的地震目录进行学习,成功回溯性预报2008年汶川地震;训练集∶测试集=8∶2模型利用1970年1月至2009年5月资料进行训练,回溯性预报2010—2019年间6级以上地震的R评分为0.407,回溯性7级地震预报时准确率高达92.31%.本文还探讨性给出预测意见:2022年2月前研究区西部、中部、东部、西南部存在发生5.1~5.3级地震的潜在危险性.  相似文献   

真三轴单面临空下煤岩组合体冲击破坏特征试验研究     

杨科  刘文杰  马衍坤  许日杰  池小楼 《岩土力学》2022,(1):15-27

煤岩复合承载结构所处的应力边界条件不同,冲击地压在巷道中的显现特征和前兆规律亦不相同。采用高频振动采集及孔内成像三轴动静载试验系统,开展了高静载和动静载耦合作用下煤岩组合体真三轴单面临空试验,分析了煤岩组合体界面处力学特征和强度条件,探究了不同应力边界下煤岩组合体的破坏形态、动力显现特征和声发射信号的演变规律。研究结果表明:(1)受煤岩变形相互制约的影响,交界面处砂岩强度被"弱化"。当界面处煤体裂隙尖端的应力大于"弱化"后砂岩强度时,裂隙将穿过煤岩界面发育至砂岩中,砂岩呈现出屈曲层裂、劈裂成板的破坏形态。(2)高静载作用下,煤岩组合体变形破坏特征和声发射信号具有明显的前兆规律,组合体发生承载失效前煤体局部颗粒弹射动能增大、弹射颗粒块度降低,声发射信号由"高频低能"向"高频高能"转变,组合体的破坏形态以剪切-张拉复合破坏为主。(3)受冲击动载影响,顶底板砂岩夹持作用减弱,煤体裂纹尖端应力得不到有效积聚,裂纹扩展到煤岩交界面时被阻隔,组合体以煤样的张拉破坏为主,声发射信号呈现出"高频高能"的特点,但大多集中在冲击破坏之后,导致组合体动力破坏难以预测。(4)与纯静载作用相比,虽然动静载耦合作...  相似文献   

Rapid screening of Zr-containing particles from Chang’e-5 lunar soil samples for isotope geochronology: Technical roadmap for future study     

《地学前缘(英文版)》2022,13(3):101367

New samples returned by China Chang’e-5 (CE-5) mission offer an opportunity for studying the lunar geologic longevity, space weathering, and regolith evolution. The age determination of the CE-5 samples was among the first scientific questions to be answered. However, the precious samples, most in the micrometer size range, challenge many traditional analyses on large single crystals of zircon developed for massive bulk samples. Here, we developed a non-destructive rapid screening of individual zirconium-containing particle for isotope geochronology based on a Micro X-ray fluorescence analysis (µXRF). The selected particles were verified via scanning electron microscopy (SEM), 3D X-ray microscopy (XRM), and focused ion beam scanning electron microscopy (FIB-SEM) techniques, which showed that zirconium-bearing minerals with several microns were precisely positioned and readily suitable for site-specific isotopic dating by second ion mass spectrometry (SIMS). Such protocol could be also applicable in non-destructively screening other types of particles for different scientific purposes. We therefore proposed a correlative workflow for comprehensively studying the CE-5 lunar samples from single particles on nanometer to atomic scales. Linking various microscopic and spectromicroscopic instruments together, this workflow consists of six steps: (1) single-particle selection with non-destructive µXRF technique, (2) 2D/3D morphological and structural characterization with a correlative submicron 3D XRM and nanoscale resolution FIB-SEM imaging methods, (3) SEM analysis of the surface morphology and chemistry of the selected particle, (4) a series of microscopic and microbeam analyses (e.g., SEM, electron probe microanalysis, and SIMS) on the cross-section of the selected particle to obtain structural, mineralogical, chemical, and isotopic features from the micron to nanometer scale, (5) advanced 2D/3D characterization and site-specific sample preparation of thin foil/tip specimens on a microregion of interest in the selected particle with FIB-SEM technique, and (6) comprehensive analyses on the FIB-milled specimens at nanometer to atomic scale with synchrotron-based scanning transmission X-ray microscopy, analytic transmission electron microscopy, and atom probe tomography. Following this technical roadmap, one can integrate multiple modalities into a uniform frame of multimodal and multiscale correlated datasets to acquire high-throughput information on the limited or precious terrestrial and extraterrestrial samples.  相似文献   

原子荧光光度法测定植物样品中的铋          下载免费PDF全文

董丽  陈素兰 《江苏地质》2012,36(2):222-224

植物样品经硝酸-高氯酸1次湿法消解后,用氢化物发生-原子荧光光谱法测定铋。测定时加入消泡剂磷酸三丁酯,可有效消除泡沫,降低记忆效应,提高精密度。方法精密度(RSD=12)铋1.50%。经加标回收试验和国家一级标准物质验证,测定结果与标准值吻合。  相似文献   

泰国北部三叠系Lampang群Doi Long组的有孔虫组合与沉积环境     

Akira MIYAHIGASHI  Katsumi UENO  Thasinee CHAROENTITIRAT  Yoshihito KAMATA 《地球学报》2012,33(S1):45-49

A rich foraminiferal assemblage, consisting of abundant Aulotortus sinuosus and A. tumidus in association with Lamelliconus multispirus, Endoteba ex gr. controversa, E. ex gr. badouxi, Endotebanella kocaeliensis, Endotriada tyrrhenica, Endotriadella wirzi, Malayspirina fontainei, Ammobaculites rhaeticus, Diplotremina astrofimbriata, Agathammina austroalpina, and others, was found in the Doi Long Formation of the Triassic Lampang Group, Northern Thailand. These foraminifers suggest that the formation is referable to the Carnian (early Late Triassic), which is consistent with the age estimated by ammonoids. In microfacies, peloidal grainstone, bioclastic grainstone, sponge-microbial boundstone, and oolitic grainstone were recognized in the Doi Long Formation. Based on microfacies, three depositional facies, the lagoon facies, reef facies, and shoal facies, are recognized in this formation. These lines of evidence are suggestive that the Doi Long Formation was deposited in a reef or bank setting rather than a ramp setting.  相似文献   

Petroleum composition in the Cuu Long Basin (Mekong Basin) offshore southern Vietnam     

Jørgen A. Bojesen-Koefoed  H. Peter Nytoft  Nguyen Thi Dau 《Marine and Petroleum Geology》2009

The Cuu Long Basin (Mekong Basin) is a rift basin off southern Vietnam, and the most important petroleum producing basin in the country. However, information on petroleum type and characteristics has hitherto been largely unavailable to the public. This paper presents petroleum geochemical data on nine oil samples from four different producing fields in the Cuu Long Basin: the Dragon (Rong), Black Lion (Sutu-Den), Sunrise (Rang ?ong) and White Tiger (Bach Ho) Fields. The oils are highly paraffinic with bimodal normal alkane distributions and show moderate pristane to phytane ratios and a conspicuous hyperbolic decrease in abundance with increasing carbon number of hopane homologues from C₃₀ to C₃₅. The TPP-index of Holba et al. (Holba, A.G., Dzou, L.I., Wood, G.D., Ellis, L., Adam, P., Schaeffer, P., Albrecht, P., Greene, T., Hughes, W.B., 2003. Application of tetracyclic polyprenoids as indicators of input from fresh–brackish water environments. Organic Geochemistry 34, 441–469) is equal to 1 in all samples which in combination with tricyclic triperpane T26/T25 ratios >1 and the n-alkane and hopane distributions mentioned above provide a strong indication of an origin from lacustrine source rocks. This is supported by the absence of marine C₃₀ desmethyl steranes (i.e. 24-n-propylcholestanes) and marine diatom-derived norcholestanes. Based on the overall biological marker distributions, the lakes probably belonged to the overfilled or balanced-fill types defined by Bohacs et al. (Bohacs, K.M., Carroll, A.R., Neal, J.E., Mankiewicz, P.J., 2000. Lake-basin type, source potential, and hydrocarbon character. An integrated sequence-stratigraphic–geochemical framework. AAPG Studies in Geology 46, 3–34). The oils were generated from source rocks at early- to mid-oil-window maturity, presumably Oligocene lacustrine shales that are present in the syn-rift succession. Oils from individual fields may, however, be distinguished by a combination of biological marker parameters, such as the oleanane index, the gammacerane index, the relative abundance of tricyclic terpanes, the proportions of diasteranes and 28-norspergulane, complemented by other parameters. The oils of the Cuu Long Basin show an overall similarity to the B-10 oil from the Song Hong Basin off northern Vietnam, but are markedly different from the seepage oils known from Dam Thi Nai on the coast of central Vietnam.  相似文献   

对黄土地区钻孔和探井试样试验指标的分析评价     

高喜政  盛根来 《山东国土资源》2008,24(10)

通过对济南地区次生黄土所采集的钻孔和探井土样进行浸水试验，并对其主要物理力学指标进行了分析评价，得出探井试样比钻孔试样所具有的试验指标更为真实可靠，因此次生黄土分布区采集探井试样进行湿陷性浸水试验是十分必要的。  相似文献   

Solution of the propagation of the waves in open channels by the transfer matrix method     

R. Daneshfaraz  B. Kaya   《Ocean Engineering》2008,35(11-12):1075-1079

Many problems in mechanics can be solved by the use of the transfer matrix method. The use of this method in hydraulics engineering is not widespread and only limited studies are available. In this study, linearized St. Venant equations were used and the use of transfer matrix in ocean engineering was investigated for long waves in open channels, and numerical application was carried out. The results obtained through the transfer matrix method, which is quite easy to use, program and comprehend, showed similar results obtained from the characteristics method and finite differences method.  相似文献   

基于一维变分算法的地基微波辐射计遥感大气温湿廓线研究   总被引：3，自引：1，他引：2  

王云  王振会  李青  朱雅毓 《气象学报》2014,72(3):570-582

为研究地基微波辐射计遥感温、湿度廓线的一维变分算法的反演能力,用北京地区2010—2011年00和12时(世界时)的多通道地基微波辐射计亮温资料进行试验。首先,利用同时次的地面观测资料、红外亮温(由地基微波辐射计自带红外传感器测得)及探空观测数据,给出提取无云样本的方案,得到432个无云样本;再以辐射传输模式计算得到的模拟亮温为参考,对无云条件下的观测亮温进行质量控制;然后利用探空数据进行模拟试验,结果发现,一维变分算法对3 km以下的温度廓线有较大调整。使反演结果更加接近探空,而对湿度廓线在0—10 km都有不同程度的优化;最后利用一维变分算法对地基微波辐射计观测亮温进行大气温湿廓线反演,将结果与探空对比可以看出,温度廓线的均方根误差小于2.9 K,绝对湿度的均方根误差小于0.47 g/m~3;进一步与地基微波辐射计自带神经网络的反演结果比较表明,一维变分的反演结果更接近实际大气。  相似文献   

田口方法用于地质样品中痕量超痕量金三种分析方法的对比          下载免费PDF全文

陈爱平  孙自军  李振 《岩矿测试》2014,33(1):51-56

目前测定地质样品痕量、超痕量金常用的三种方法是活性炭吸附富集-发射光谱法、泡塑吸附富集-石墨炉原子吸收光谱法、活性炭吸附富集-电感耦合等离子体质谱法,这三种方法的检出限在0.1~0.3ng/g之间,由于矿石矿物的组成非常复杂,因此在有效富集和分离的基础上,采用合适的分析手段,能够对地质样品提供满意的分析结果。为保证试样要求的灵敏度和准确性,分析方法的选择需求应根据具体试样情况和实验室条件而定。根据田口玄一博士在测量工程学中提出的信噪比(S/N)能测量系统抗干扰能力,评价测量系统的稳健性和可靠性这一观点,本文利用田口测量质量控制理论,评价地质样品中痕量、超痕量金常用的上述三种分析测试方法,对这三种分析方法三个金标准物质的测试数据进行分类处理,计算S/N值和相对标准不确定度,通过比较三者的S/N值和相对标准不确定度值,确定更为可靠的测试体系。分析结果表明,对于地质样品中痕量金(含量大于1 ng/g)的测试,三种分析方法均能够满足要求;对于超痕量金(含量小于1 ng/g)的测试,活性炭吸附富集-电感耦合等离子体质谱法是较好的测试方案。  相似文献